Impact X Archives

Impact X – Corner Case: Fishing

This post has been archived with permission from the Impact X blog.


Fishing

Fishing is the tactic of attacking with a low probability dice pool and hoping for a big result, or throwing back a small result in hopes of a bigger one. Fishing is a key tactic with certain units or under certain circumstances. Knowing when to fish and what your probabilities are can often get you a favorable outcome out of a seemingly impossible situation.

The premise and execution is pretty easy, the trick is identifying when to fish and what the probabilities are. The core of fishing is knowing the probabilities and picking the right tools to put towards certain situations to produce an unlikely outcome.

Relevant Rules:

version agnostic

Constants:

  • Red: 1x blank, 5x success, 1x surge, 1x critical  or 75% chance of success without surge and 87.5% with surge.
  • Black: 3x blank, 3x success, 1x surge, 1x critical  or 50% chance of success without surge and 62.5% with surge.
  • White: 5x blank, 1x success, 1x surge, 1x critical  or  25% chance of success without surge and 37.5% with surge.
  • All Dice Critical: 6x blank, 1x surge, 1x critical  or 12.5% chance of critical without surge and 25% chance with surge.
  • Red with Reroll: 93.75% no surge, 97.5% with surge
  • Black with Reroll: 75% no surge,  86% with surge
  • White with Reroll: 43.75% no surge, 61% with surge
  • All Dice Critical with Reroll: 22.5% no surge, 43.75% with surge.

Understanding:

Given the above constants we can see that there are situations where certain dice or certain rerolls can give us results in scenarios that are otherwise unlikely to produce results. The core of this tactic falls within the percentage on dice constants and the defensive constants such as cover and armor.

 

swd03_preview2.jpg

Execution:

Crit Fishing: This strategy is fairly well known and common. In some situations where a success is unlikely, such as when attacking units with Armor when you don’t have Impact, or attacking at a unit in cover when your expected damage is 2 or less. Often in this situation it is better to find something else to do with that unit, but in some situations the target in question must go to advance your game plan. In those situations it is important to be able to calculate what the odds are of you actually accomplishing something. Those chances can be figured out using the constants above, and the Never Tell Me The Odds article.

Unequal Odds Rerolls: This strategy is less common and actually catches a lot of people off guard because it is unintuitive. In low dice pool attacks with unequal odds on dice, it is sometimes better to reroll a successful die with a high probability of success to try and get a crit and not lose and successes, rather than reroll a low probability die and get another failure. This is a strong strategy in mixed dice pools such as the AT-ST, Palpatine or Sabine, but where this strategy really shines is on small dice pools like Rebel Snipers. With Sabine if you roll into a result such as success on red and black and blank on white, it is often more effective to reroll the red and white instead of the just the white. This effect is best demonstrated with the Rebel Sniper though. When attacking with a rebel sniper into heavy cover you will need both dice to succeed to get any damage through. If the sniper was to roll a success on the black die and a blank on the white die, it is best to reroll both and here is why. If you reroll just the white die you have a 33.4% chance to get the success you need (hit or crit is the same chance), however if you reroll both dice you get a 25% chance to get 1 crit and a 23.4% chance to a success on both dice or a 48.4% chance of getting the one damage you want, or 15% better odds. If you get one success and it’s on the white die, the best move is to reroll just the black die as it gives you a 62.5% chance to get the double success you want.

Rerolling Successes: This strategy involves rerolling a hit in hopes of a crit. This is especially explainable with Veer’s Maximum Firepower shooting against armor. Maximum Firepower is expected to get 1 crit, 2.5 hits, and .5 misses with Precise and Impact 2. This will get you 3 hits against armor, however if you reroll everything but the crit using precise you increase your odds to 75% chance of getting a second crit, and only a 37% chance to get a single blank increasing your chances to get to 4 crits after impact quite high and at worst you will end up with the same result. This is also a valid strategy against units with dodge and cover, or against guardian.

Wrap Up:

With these 3 new tools in your kit, you should have a much stronger understanding of what dice to reroll and when. Keep these tactics in mind when when picking targets and managing expectations as well. As with all new tactics you learn, keep an open mind on how to apply them while playing and use them in ways that make sense to your playstyle – understanding and applying in your own way is always more valuable than copying.

Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.

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